Check unemployment

February 04, 2010

After last quarter’s GDP results were released last week showing a 5.7% spike for the fourth quarter, Coffee Talk spoke with one banker who does not follow that number.

Said he: “My focus remains on the unemployment numbers” — specifically on unemployment insurance claims.

That statement was then accompanied by a reference to the latest weekly unemployment insurance claims, which had then dropped slightly at the national level.

The numbers for Florida are more telling.

The following chart shows the rate of unemployment insurance claims against total employment, courtesy of Office of Unemployment Insurance.

The data demonstrates what appears to be a clear peak in the insured unemployment rate in the summer of 2009.

To understand the implications of such a peak, you first have to understand what portion of unemployed persons are applying for benefits — remember, not everyone without a job can claim them.

Since unemployment insurance is primarily made available to laid off workers, a peak in the insured unemployment rate may indicate a slowdown in layoffs statewide.

That may not be grounds for celebration. And peak or no peak, the rate still has a long way to go before getting back below the pre-2008 level.

But it’s one indication that the state may have actually turned the corner on economic contraction.